Public opinion survey

Survey of voters shows Kennedy and Pine ahead, Almond and York tied

A survey of 414 Rhode Island voters conducted Jan. 24 and 25 found Rep. Patrick Kennedy leading Treasurer Nancy Mayer and Attorney General Jeff Pine leading two potential opponents. Voter responses suggested that the governor's race is a dead heat between Gov. Lincoln Almond and Myrth York.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Gov. Lincoln Almond and Democrat Myrth York are virtually tied in the 1998 gubernatorial race, according to a recent statewide survey. Competitive races for other Rhode Island offices also are shaping up this year.

The survey was conducted Jan. 24 and 25, 1998, at Brown University by Darrell M. West, professor of political science and director of the John Hazen White Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory; Thomas J. Anton, director of the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions; and Jack Combs, the Center's research administrator. It was based on a statewide random sample of 414 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, it had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points.

The governor's race is a dead heat. When asked whom they would prefer if the election were held today, 37 percent named York, 35 percent said Almond, 9 percent named Cool Moose party candidate Robert Healey, and 19 percent were undecided.

In addition to this matchup, researchers inquired which candidate voters would support if businessman Richard Oster were the Democratic candidate. Thirty-nine percent indicated they would favor Almond, 18 percent named Oster, 12 percent preferred Healey, and 31 percent were undecided.

In the First District Congressional race, Rep. Patrick Kennedy leads State Treasurer Nancy Mayer 51 to 30 percent among district voters, with 19 percent undecided. If the Republican candidate were Ron Santa, Kennedy's lead would be 60 to 21 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

Attorney General Jeff Pine holds a comfortable advantage over each of his two possible Democratic opponents. Pine leads lawyer Eva Mancuso 59 to 28 percent and General Assembly lawyer Bill Guglietta 62 to 18 percent.

In the race for lieutenant governor, incumbent Bernard Jackvony trails each of two possible opponents. Democrat State Sen. Charles Fogarty leads Jackvony by 37 to 21 percent, while Democrat State Rep. David Cicilline is ahead of Jackvony by 32 to 24 percent.

In the election for treasurer, Democrat Paul Tavares is tied with Republican Christine Callahan at 28 percent, but leads Republican Jim Bennett by 32 to 18 percent.

Despite allegations of sexual misconduct, President Bill Clinton continues to receive positive job performance ratings from Rhode Island voters. Fifty-nine percent give him excellent or good ratings, 24 percent say it has been only fair, 14 percent rate him poor, and 3 percent offered no opinion. In September 1997, 52 percent rated him excellent or good in his handling of his job.

Rhode Island voters support the death penalty for persons convicted of murder. Forty-nine percent indicate they favor the death penalty, 34 percent say they oppose it, and 17 percent are unsure.

In other results, Almond's overall job performance is about the same as the last survey, conducted in September 1997. Forty-three percent give him excellent or good ratings, 36 percent rate him only fair, 16 percent rate him poor, and 5 percent have no opinion. In the earlier survey, 44 percent felt his performance had been excellent or good, 33 percent believed it has been only fair, 17 percent rate him poor, and 6 percent had no opinion.

Jackvony remains relatively unknown to many Rhode Island voters. Twenty-eight percent feel he is doing an excellent or good job (up from 20 percent in September), 24 percent rate him only fair, 4 percent give him poor marks, and 44 percent are undecided.

Sixty-four percent believe Pine is doing an excellent or good job, up from 52 percent in September. Fifty-four percent feel Secretary of State Jim Langevin's performance has been excellent or good, up from 45 in the last survey. Sixty-eight percent believe Mayer's performance has been excellent or good, up from 59 percent in September. Twenty-six percent rate Speaker John Harwood's performance as excellent or good (up from 21 percent). Thirty-one percent rate Senate Majority Leader Paul Kelly's job performance as excellent or good (up from 22 percent).

With regard to federal officials, 62 percent believe Sen. John Chafee is doing an excellent or good job (up from 53 percent). These numbers compare to 67 percent for Sen. Jack Reed (up from 53 percent), 53 percent for Kennedy (up from 44 percent), and 49 percent for Rep. Robert Weygand (up from 34 percent last September).

When asked what the most important problem facing the state of Rhode Island was today, 23 percent named jobs and unemployment, followed by 10 percent for education, 7 percent for ethics and corruption, 6 percent for taxes, 6 percent for budget and government finances, 5 percent for the economy, 4 percent for politics and politicians, and 4 percent for business climate. All other items named were under 3 percent.

A majority of voters (63 percent) believes the state is headed in the right direction (up from 59 percent in September), while 26 percent think it is on the wrong track. The Index of Consumer Sentiment for Rhode Island this month is 100.1, up from the last reading of 91.6 in September. This index is modeled after a national index developed at the University of Michigan. It is based on five questions measuring views about the economy and is used to determine over time how optimistic or pessimistic people are feeling. The January 1998 figure is the highest reading the state has had since 1992:

     September 1997     91.6        September 1994     82.7
     June 1997          87.1        July 1994          80.1
     February 1997      87.0        February 1994      81.0
     September 1996     82.3        September 1993     74.4
     June 1996          78.5        July 1993          69.8
     February 1996      74.3        February 1993      76.0
     September 1995     73.9        September 1992     68.3
     June 1995          68.8        June 1992          76.0 
     February 1995      81.4

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163.

Survey Questions and Responses

If the election for the first congressional district were held today, would you vote for the Republican Nancy Mayer or Democrat Patrick Kennedy? 30% Mayer, 51% Kennedy, 19% don't know or no answer (respondents living in first district only)

If the election for the first congressional district were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ron Santa or Democrat Patrick Kennedy? 21% Santa, 60% Kennedy, 19% don't know or no answer (respondents living in first district only)

If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for the Republican Lincoln Almond, Democrat Myrth York, or Cool Moose Robert Healey? 35% Almond, 37% York, 9% Healey, 19% don't know or no answer

If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for the Republican Lincoln Almond, Democrat Richard Oster, or Cool Moose Robert Healey? 39% Almond, 18% Oster, 12% Healey, 31% don't know or no answer

If the election for lieutenant governor were held today, would you vote for the Republican
Bernard Jackvony or Democrat Charles Fogarty? 21% Jackvony, 37% Fogarty, 42% don't know or no answer

If the election for lieutenant governor were held today, would you vote for the Republican
Bernard Jackvony or Democrat David Cicilline? 24% Jackvony, 32% Cicilline, 44% don't know or no answer

If the election for attorney-general were held today, would you vote for the Republican
Jeff Pine or Democrat Eva Mancuso? 59% Pine, 28% Mancuso, 13% don't know or no answer

If the election for attorney-general were held today, would you vote for the Republican
Jeff Pine or Democrat Bill Guglietta? 62% Pine, 18% Guglietta, 20% don't know or no answer

If the election for treasurer were held today, would you vote for the Republican
Christine Callahan or Democrat Paul Tavares? 28% Callahan, 28% Tavares, 44% don't know or no answer

If the election for treasurer were held today, would you vote for the Republican
Jim Bennett or Democrat Paul Tavares? 18% Bennett, 32% Tavares, 50% don't know or no answer

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are: 45% better off, 21% worse off financially than you were a year ago, 34% don't know or no answer

Now looking ahead--do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be: 35% better off financially, 6% worse off, 52% just about the same as now, 7% don't know or no answer

Now turning to business conditions in the state as a whole - do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have: 53% good times financially, 19% bad times, 28% don't know or no answer

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely - that in the state as a whole: 47% we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, 32% we'll have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what, 21% don't know or no answer

About the big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a: 71% good, 10% bad time for people to buy major household items, 19% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Bill Clinton is doing as president? 13% excellent, 46% good, 24% only fair, 14% poor, 3% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job John Chafee is doing as U.S. Senator? 13% excellent, 49% good, 28% only fair, 6% poor, 4% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jack Reed is doing as U.S. Senator? 17% excellent, 50% good, 17% only fair, 5% poor, 11% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Patrick Kennedy is doing as U.S. Representative? 10% excellent, 43% good, 23% only fair, 15% poor, 9% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Robert Weygand is doing as U.S. Representative? 8% excellent, 41% good, 21% only fair, 3% poor, 27% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Lincoln Almond is doing as governor? 7% excellent, 36% good, 36% only fair, 16% poor, 5% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Bernard Jackvony is doing as lieutenant governor? 3% excellent, 25% good, 24% only fair, 4% poor, 44% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jeff Pine is doing as attorney general? 15% excellent, 49% good, 19% only fair, 10% poor, 7% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jim Langevin is doing as secretary of state? 14% excellent, 40% good, 14% only fair, 2% poor, 30% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Nancy Mayer is doing as general treasurer? 15% excellent, 53% good, 13% only fair, 4% poor, 15% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job John Harwood is doing as Speaker of the House? 2% excellent, 24% good, 23% only fair, 9% poor, 42% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Paul Kelly is doing as Senate Majority Leader? 3% excellent, 28% good, 22% only fair, 9% poor, 38% don't know or no answer

Generally speaking, would you say things in Rhode Island are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 63% right direction, 26% wrong track, 11% don't know or no answer

As far as you are concerned, what is the most important problem facing the state of Rhode Island today? responses coded as: 23% jobs and unemployment, 10% education, 7% ethics and corruption, 6% taxes, 6% budget and government finances, 5% economy, 4% politics and politicians, 4% business climate. All other items named were under 3%

Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of murder? 49% favor, 34% oppose, 17% don't know or no answer