Yoni Dolgan
1. Title
Where do future early adopters of electric vehicles in Rhode Island live? What upgrades to the electricity infrastructure in RI must be made to maintain grid reliability? How many early adopters will need a charge spot at their work location, given commuter-driving patterns?
2. Motivation for the research
Electric vehicles are the future of personal transportation in the world. Worldwide efforts are being made to mass produce electric vehicles, upgrade electric utilities, create EV-friendly political incentives, install charging infrastructure, and improve existing technology.
Transitioning from internal- combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) will increase the demand for electricity significantly. To ensure that this transition does not sacrifice the stability of the grid, electric utilities must upgrade their infrastructure to ensure grid reliability.
Rhode Island will officially become the first Project Get Ready partner state in the United States, and set a target of registering 10,000 electric vehicles, or 5% of the state’s total car fleet, by 2013. In order to prepare for the mass adoption of electric vehicles, the electric utility infrastructure must be upgraded to meet the expected load of EVs, and ensure grid reliability.
National Grid – Rhode Island’s electricity supplier – will make initial grid upgrades based on where electric vehicle charge spots are installed and utilized. They are currently unsure of where these initial early adopters will be located.
3. Overall research question
Where are the initial “hotspots” of EVs likely to appear in RI? By combining this data with location-specific commuting patterns, how many people are likely to use EVs for their daily commute? How many will need charge spots at work? What employer-incentives could be offered to make commuting via PHEV more cost competitive?
This question bears critical importance, as the stability of the grid depends on it. The electric grid was designed to meet an anticipated load. Each electric vehicle’s battery represents an additional load to the grid. Each transformer has its own maximum load limit that it can support, and if that limit is exceeded, power outages will ensue.
We are assuming that an EV’s battery stores 35 kWh of energy. Charging BEV batteries will constrain the grid based on the following variables: charge rate (110V, 220V, 400V), number of cars charging simultaneously from a local grid, etc. In order to keep the current flowing, the grid will need to upgrade certain transformers based on the expected number of EVs located on the same local grid, and the constraints placed on the transformer’s load.
Where are the initial hotspot early adopters likely to appear?
Studies have been conducted that predict future early adopters of BEVs, based on certain decisions that these people have already made. For example, a household is __% likely to purchase an EV in the next __ years if it currently owns a Toyota Prius. Additionally, a household is ___% likely to purchase an EV in the next __ years if it has solar panels installed on its roof. Other behavioral elements could be explored to identify future early adopters of EVs, such as: level of affluence, ethnicity, typical driving distance, etc. [such data exists, but I’m still searching for sources].
Data will be collected from the Rhode Island Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to find out where Toyota Prius owners live in RI. Data will be collected from solar panel installers in Rhode Island to determine what homes have solar panels on their roofs. Location-specific commuting patters will be collected from the Department of Transportation.
Using arcGIS software, this tabular data will be integrated into a map, which will identify streets and regions in the state where there is a high concentration of likely future early adopters. This spatial representation will help identify where non-household charge spots will need to be initially installed.
Scholarship related to electric vehicles is constrained, given that this is such a new subject that only recently is attracting worldwide attention. While there is a significant base of literature that deals with the relationship between EVs and the electric utility on a general level, there have been no published scholarship that lays out the steps that National Grid must take to upgrade the electric infrastructure in Rhode Island. Further, in conversations that I have had with John Lowell, from ISONE, I learned that there has been little research done in the private sector that answers these questions.
Within the context of Project Get Ready, I have established myself as a technical advisor to the group. National Grid is a major stakeholder in the group, and my thesis research will advise them as to where they should make grid upgrades.
4. Approach
Several processes will occur this year as a write my thesis:
It is currently unclear how much data National Grid will provide me. If they were receptive to collaboration, I could also identify how early adopters will cause constraints on the grid, and make recommendations as to what upgrades must be made. However, if they are not willing to share such information, I can make certain informed conclusions about what adoption level would stress a local distribution grid, and suggest what could be done to charge those vehicles without costly distribution upgrades (such ass instituting real-time pricing that offers an incentive to charge at night).
Questions I still need to answer
1) What papers correlate early EV adoption with hybrid vehicle ownership and solar roofs? What other factors are strong indicators of likely EV adoption?
2) DMV Data – where do hybrid owners live in RI?
3) Solar paneled households
- Names of largest solar panel installers
- Acquire addresses of homes where solar panels have been installed
4) Location-specific driving patterns, broken down by city – where to acquire such data?
5) What statistical formulas will be used to determine where hotspots will be, once data is collected?
6) How to represent this data on GIS?
7) Will National Grid provide detailed information on actual distribution constraints in specific RI load pockets?
5. Sources
The following papers provide a thorough analysis that describes the complex relationship between electric vehicles and grid stabilization:
Amardeep Dhanju, Phillip Whitaker, Willett Kempton. “Assessing offshore wind
resources: An accessible methodology,” Renewable Energy, Volume 33, Issue 1,
January 2008, Pages 55-64,
(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V4S-4NRMD4W-
1/2/df6c372ef6b470ffa5a9c73ec50c8dc0)
Axsen, John, Dean C. Mountain, and Mark Jaccard. "Combining Stated and Revealed Choice Research to Simulate the Neighbor Effect: The Case of Hybrid-Electric Vehicles." Resource and Energy Economics 31.3 (2009): 221-38.
Bass, F. M. . "A New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables." Management Science 15 (1969): 215-27.
Horne, Matt, Mark Jaccard, and Ken Tiedemann. "Improving Behavioral Realism
in Hybrid Energy-Economy Models Using Discrete Choice Studies of
Personal Transportation Decisions." Energy Economics 27.1 (2005): 59-
77.
Kempton, W., Tomic, J. “Vehicle-to-grid power fundamentals: Calculating
capacity and net revenue,” Journal of Power Sources, Volume 144, Issue 1, 1 June
2005, Pages 268-279.
(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6TH1-4FXHJ9P-
2/2/48041eee0ade5e17263795a6ddcd2b53)
Meade N., Islam T. "Modelling and Forecasting the Diffusion of Innovation - a 25-Year Review." International Journal of Forecasting 22.3 (2006): 519-45.
Rivers N., Jaccard M. "Useful Models for Simulating Policies to Induce Technological Change." Energy Policy 34.15 (2006): 2038-47.
Tomic J., Kempton W. “Using fleets of electric-drive vehicles for grid support,”
Journal of Power Sources, Volume 168, Issue 2, 1 June 2007, Pages 459-468,
(http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6TH1-4N7RY2T-
9/2/a1396d6a02a8e052fe9929c57f33e1b4)
ISO-NE Online Tutorials