Closed to Open Doors:
Portuguese Emigration under the Corporatist Regime
Ioannis B. Baganha
University of Coimbra
paper analyses the Portuguese emigration policy under the corporatist
regime. It departs from the assumption that sending countries are no
more than by bystanders in the migratory process. The paper goes a step
further, claiming that in the Portuguese case, not only did the Estado
Novo (New State) control the migratory flows that were occurring,
but that it used emigration to its own advantage. I tried next to present
evidence to show that by the analysis of the individual characteristics
of the migrants and of their skills, their exodus couldnt have
harmed the countrys economic growth during the sixties, since
the percentage of scientific and technical manpower was, when compared
to other European countries, far too scarce to frame an industrial labour
force higher than the existing one. The paper concludes that during
this period, the most likely hypothesis is that the Portuguese migratory
flow was composed of migrants that were redundant to the domestic economy.
Portugal, Estado Novo, New State, Corporatist, Salazar, Migration Policy,
Labour, Economy, Economic Growth
The political sanctioning of immigration may foster open-door policies
in order to maximise the countrys labour supply, it may induce the
adoption of quota systems in order to help preserve cultural and political
integrity, or it may even promote the incorporation of special skills
and intellectual capital. In turn, the political sanctioning of emigration
may lead to the selection, promotion, or restriction of emigrants
departures, which can and usually does distort the composition of the
migratory flow, directly affecting the level of remittances that emigration
produces and thus its impact on the sending countrys economy. The
adoption of one of these main types of policy by a receiving or a sending
state has varied historically in accordance with the states own
perception of domestic collective interests. The fact that sending and
receiving states are integral parts of the migratory process has long
been recognised (e.g. Zolberg 1983). However, the fact that this distinctive
feature of international migration has to be built into the conceptual
frameworks constructed to explain these processes has proved less consensual.
In particular, it should be admitted that the role played by the sending
state is more often than not overlooked (e.g. Böhning 1984).
The Portuguese case is no exception to this rule. In fact, the main available
explanations for Portuguese emigration after the Second World War stress
either the duality of Portuguese society and the imbalances of the countrys
economic structure1 or the wage differential between Portugal
and the receiving countries as the main factors driving a growing number
of migrants out of the country.2 I do not deny the importance
of either of these factors: in fact the consideration of domestic conditions
is extremely relevant for explaining why migratory pressure was endemic
in Portugal, while higher rewards for labour abroad are essential for
understanding why, at a given moment, migratory pressure turned into emigration.
What I am trying to say is that both approaches are lacking in several
respects as explanations for the Portuguese migratory process.
Just consider, for instance, the timing of the Portuguese emigration to
France, the largest recipient of Portuguese emigration after World War
II. The analysis of foreign arrivals in France, which was a major receiving
country during this period and the preferred destination for Portuguese
emigrants, from 1950 to 1974 clearly exemplifies this point. Not until
1961 did Portuguese arrivals exceed a total of 10,000 migrants, representing
10.5% of all foreign arrivals in France (which that year numbered 160,000
persons). Previously, immigration to France was mainly composed of Italians
From 1962 onwards, Portugal had a constantly increasing share of the influx
of foreign labour into France. This contribution reached its peak in 1970
and 1971. Total arrivals numbered 255,000 in 1970, and 218,000 in 1971,
with the Portuguese representing 53% and 51% respectively of the total
foreign inflow.4 The Portuguese were not simply replacing the
Italians and the Spaniards numerically, they were also taking up the job
vacancies made available or unfilled by them, namely in public works,
construction, domestic and personal services and in agriculture.5 An obvious question raised by the schedule of Portuguese emigration to
France raises is, why didnt the Portuguese compete with the Italians
and the Spaniards from the very beginning? And the answer has to be that
if for no other reason than the exclusion of other possibilities, neither
the necessary channels of information and support nor political sanctioning
were sufficiently open for such competition to occur.
In this paper, I intend to discuss one of these frequently disregarded
factors, namely the impact that the Estado Novo (New State), the
corporatist regime that formally began in April 1933 and ended abruptly
in April 1974,6 had on Portuguese emigration.7 I am particularly
interested in showing that the distorted composition of the Portuguese
migratory flow and the high level of remittances it generated were the
direct result of state interference in emigration. More generally speaking,
I wish to demonstrate, by considering the Portuguese case, how a non-democratic
regime, which in its fundamental law submitted the individuals right
to freedom of movement to its own definition of collective interest (whether
this was the composition of the domestic labour market or the state colonial
aims in Africa), changed from an anti-emigration policy to a quota system
policy and ended up subscribing to an open-door policy, in response to
its own changes in economic policy. Moreover, in the process, the regime
used to its own advantage the openness that characterised the Western
European labour market from the Second World War to the oil-crisis of
Portuguese Emigration Policy
As in many other respects, Portuguese emigration policy during the Estado
Novo represents a break with the past. In fact, while until 1933 the liberal
rights of freedom of movement were formally respected, after that date
they became legally subject to the economic and imperial interests of
the state. Article 31 of the 1933 Constitution reads as follows: The
state has the right and the obligation of coordinating and regulating
the economic and social life of the Nation with the aim of populating
the national territories, protecting emigrants and disciplining emigration.
Under the scope of these objectives, the Estado Novo sought to combine
three main aspects: the countrys labour needs, its interests in
Africa and the extra financial capabilities that came from remittances,
promoted by the supervised export of labour within the international market.
The consideration of these aspects varied over time and had a direct bearing
on the changes in the emigration policy pursued by the government.
The legal framework for controlling and disciplining emigration began
to be constructed quite early on, in fact well before 1933. But, with
one exception that will be referred to later on, most of the legislation
enacted before 1933 was intended to control and protect the emigrant and
not to restrict departures. The same cannot, however, be said of the Law
adopted in 1944 (Decree-Law No. 33:918 of September 5) which forbade the
issue of an ordinary passport to any industrial worker or rural labourer.
Operating in conjunction with the Law of 1929 (Decree-Law No. 16:782 of
April 27), which forbade anybody aged over 14 and under 45 unable to prove
that they had successfully completed their primary school education from
migrating, this law barred most of the population from emigration, given
the Portuguese societys endemic illiteracy of the society, and laid
the foundations for the adoption of discretionary decisions by the emigration
Such legal provisions would in fact have had little effect if a coordinating
system had not been brought into existence. In 1947, after a temporary
total ban on emigration, a special government agency, simultaneously dependent
on the Foreign and Home Ministries, was created to regulate and supervise
emigration (Decree-Law No. 36:558 of October 28). This service was called Junta da Emigração (Emigration Committee), and it
had the specific strategic goal of implementing a quota system that would
define the maximum number of departures by region and occupation after
taking into account regional labour needs and the structure of the active
If we consider that annual average departures did not exceed 11,000 a
year during the 1930s and fell to 9,000 a year during the 1940s, such
interest in controlling emigration is at first quite astounding, particularly
since emigration was no longer a viable option due to the course of international
events. It did, however, obey the rationale of the corporatist regime
of submitting individual rights to the collective interest, and later
on met the need for using the safety valve mechanism to reduce the existing
demographic surplus, frequently recognised in official statements during
the 1950s (e.g. Diário do Governo 1958:550-887).
In keeping with this same logic, several bilateral treaties were signed
during the 1960s, namely with the Netherlands, France and the Federal
Republic of Germany. These treaties, openly entered into in order to ensure
a greater control of emigration, as well as to maximise the economic returns
brought by emigration to these countries, must, however, be considered
alongside the internal legislation adopted during this period (e.g. Decree-Law
No. 44:422 of June 29, 1962). This legislation further cemented the links
between state control of emigration, and information about domestic labour
needs and government economic targets. To the text of the law, the government
seems to have added some subtle provisions, namely giving directions to
the Emigration Services to allow a maximum of only 30,000 departures a
year and to ban legal departures of certain specific occupations, even
when such measures were in conflict with the text of the bilateral treaties
signed (Cassola Ribeiro 1987:75).
The compound effect of the bilateral treaties and the domestic measures
taken during the 1960s was to ensure a migratory flow that the state did
not consider to be harmful to the countrys labour supply, but instead
beneficial to the countrys economic growth. A different idea seems
to have been held by the traditional industrial and rural elites of the
time, both of them claiming, as in the past, that legal and, above all,
illegal emigration was producing significant labour shortages and causing
wages to skyrocket.
The government responded to these complaints with apparently paradoxical
measures. In 1965, illegal emigration ceased to be a crime punishable
by law and the need for a proof of literacy was suppressed. These measures
are puzzling, particularly since they came at a time when the war in Africa
was at its fiercest and the complaints from the traditional economic elites
were becoming louder and louder.
The governments reasoning was based on two different assumptions:
first, there was in fact an excess labour supply that could be profitably
exported without endangering the countrys labour needs; second,
since the 1950s, government economic policy had been gradually abandoning
its initial strategy of promoting, by state intervention, the highly labour-intensive
traditional industries of northern Portugal and the interests of rural
landowners in favour of supporting the creation of a leading modern industrial
sector in the Lisbon area. This industrial sector would absorb most of
the existing labour supply of skilled workers, highly-skilled workers
and professionals, the types of labour for which emigration had never
held any particular attraction.
Accordingly, on the eve of the 1974 Revolution, the Corporatist State
was about to promulgate the most liberal law of this period, which the
legislator justified through the benefits that emigration provided, namely
gains in productivity and a rationalisation of the methods of production,
concluding with the following statement: emigration, acting as a
positive factor for modernisation and the rationalisation of labour, has
made a powerful contribution to the progress and development of the country.
In view of such an understanding,8 it is no surprise that the government
opted for a liberal emigration policy. Such liberalisation came, however,
at a time when the receiving countries were moving in the opposite direction.
In other words, the Estado Novo was about to open its doors when other
countries were closing theirs.
Emigration and Economic Policies
As we have just seen, Portuguese emigration policy during the Estado Novo
may be divided into three main periods. The first period runs from 1933
to 1946. During this period, emigration was controlled and disciplined,
not because the departures taking place were seen as dangerous to the
countrys labour supply, nor because the Portuguese were responding en masse to an international demand that did not in fact exist,
but because such legal measures were an undeniable obligation of the government,
an integral part of the doctrinaire nationalist and authoritarian principles
of the regime: the subordination of individual rights to the collective
interest, the promotion of the countrys self-sufficiency, and the
defence of a certain isolation from the exterior.9 In order to implement
these principles, social conflict and competition had to be suppressed
or at least closely regulated.
The economy was legally framed under the scope of these new principles.
After 1931, the industrial sector became regulated and disciplined, particularly
in regard to three aspects: output growth, the creation and localisation
of new or existing industries, and the transfer of the site of productive
units.10 Protective tariffs were adopted to protect domestic
industry from external competition, whilst the national economy was defended
from financial internationalisation by the law covering the Nationalisation
of Capital adopted in 1943. In Salazars own words, this law
was enacted because: all economic factors belonging to or acting
within the Portuguese Nation must be integrated into the domestic economy,
and must, above all, serve the domestic economy. They must follow its
directives and obey its dictates (Salazar, Discursos, in
The agricultural sector was subjected to a similar intervention. In this
sector, the main government measure was known as the Wheat Campaign,
which was particularly active between 1929 and 1938. It primarily took
the form of direct subsidies, low credit, and major irrigation projects.
Finally, with the 1935 law of Economic Reconstitution, the
Estado Novo launched several major public works projects for the period.
These projects were carried out between 1937 and 1950 and affected several
infrastructures, namely communications, harbours, energy, the water supply,
the road network and the merchant navy.11
The results of all this direct state intervention and control over the
economy were that, at least for a while, the countrys grain production
increased significantly, public works greatly improved the countrys
infrastructures, generating a significant amount of state-sponsored employment.
But, as Marques (1988) stressed, the first and most important result of
the Estado Novos intervention on the economy was that competition
was replaced by state intervention. As may be expected, Salazar judged
these results quite differently: ...although the largest projects
are not yet contributing to the general well-being, the progress achieved
during these last few years is in fact remarkable... And no single sign
of progress is more revealing than to have guaranteed work and food for
the population, which now grows, does not emigrate and enjoys ever greater
standards of living (Salazar, Discursos, 1961: XXII-XXIII).
The second period corresponds roughly to the 1950s. During this period,
the Estado Novo progressively changed its previous economic discourse
to a discourse favouring the countrys industrialisation on a path
leading to progress and modernisation. When the First Development Plan
was launched in 1953, it was Salazar who stated:
It is known that industry has higher returns than agriculture
and that only through industrialisation can the standards of living
of the population be decidedly improved. Only with industrialisation
is it possible to attain high demographic densities without serious
danger. Without a given level of industrialisation, we will have no
internal market for some rural productions, nor can we restrict an excessive
level of emigration, which, in some cases, is already occurring under
conditions we deem to be unsatisfactory. ... Industrialisation has to
be carried out and encouraged, for the above-mentioned reasons.... (Discursos, 1959:103, 104)
Aware that the existing population surplus in the countryside could not
be significantly channelled to Africa, and convinced that the countrys
progress had to be achieved through industrialisation, the government
tolerated the formation and development of a new migratory movement to
Europe, allowing the spread of channels of information and support, within
the parameters legally defined in the previous period.
The third period covers the remaining years of the regime, i.e. until
1974. It was a period of change marked by the internationalisation of
the economy12 and a substantial rate of economic growth. The rationale
for the changes taking place can be found in the words of the Secretary
of State for the Economy, Correia de Oliveira, who, in 1966, attributed
the countrys backwardness in relation to the other European economies
to the longlasting protection of domestic industry against competition,
innovation and modern technology, as well as to the sacrifice of the agricultural
sector to the development of industry (Marques 1988:93). On this last
point, he wrote: We based our industrial development on low wages,
and these on low food prices, which were in turn based on fixed and frozen
prices for agricultural products. Having been maintained for so long,
these prices have discouraged investment in the agricultural sector
(quoted in Marques 1988: 93).
During this period, the interests of the traditional economic elites (northern
textile and consumer good industries and rural landowners) lost ground
to the leading economic, financial and industrial groups, based in the
Lisbon area and much less dependent than the traditional elites on the
rural and unskilled population. Faced with a war in Africa that absorbed
50% of public revenue, and aware that emigration could effectively absorb
a large part of the rural exodus essential to the countrys modernisation,
the Estado Novo embarked upon a gradual process of liberalising emigration.
Notice, for example, that while the Plano Intercalar de Fomento (Interim Growth Plan) (1964) provided for the creation of 20,000 thousand
new jobs between 1965 and 1967 (Rocha 1982:1048), the emigration services
were by that time receiving instructions to allow 30,000 annual departures,
which seems to indicate that the state considered that most of the rural
exodus was to be absorbed abroad and not domestically.
The analysis of the main laws enacted during the corporatist regime and
the discourse of the several economic actors affected by emigration raise
a central question: was the state making a correct assessment of the domestic
situation when it based the liberalisation of emigration on the assumption
that emigration would not be harmful to the countrys labour needs
and, in fact, judged emigration to be beneficial because it helped foster
the countrys modernisation by easing its transformation from an
economic structure heavily marked by the size of the agricultural sector
to a more balanced one? To answer this question, I will briefly consider
the socio-demographic characteristics of migrants, some indicators on
the evolution of the economic and demographic impact of emigration, and
finally the evolution of the labour market.
Some Main Characteristics of Portuguese Emigration
Between 1933 and 1974, approximately 1.98 million Portuguese left the
country; 32% of the departures took place clandestinely. Close to three-quarters
of this exodus occurred between 1961 and 1974 (see Table 1 and Graph 1).
Until 1960, more than 80% of migrants headed for the Americas, with Brazil
accounting for most of the flow: 80% until 1949 and 68% during the 1950s
(5). After 1960, the main destination of the Portuguese migratory flow
was Western Europe (75% of the total), and more specifically France and
Germany (Baganha 1990, 1994 and 1998) (6). Table 1 and Fig. 1 can be summarised
very briefly as follows: Portuguese emigration grew constantly and substantially
from 1950, when departures numbered 22,000, to 1970, when departures numbered
183,000. It declined from 1971 onwards, when departures numbered 158,000.
The peak years of Portuguese emigration after the Second World War occurred
between 1965 and 1974, when the average annual number of departures was
122,000 thousand migrants. A crude but representative image of Portuguese
emigration can thus be expressed by three lines: an ascending line from
1950 to 1964 (with the following numerical limits: 22,000 and 76,000);
a horizontal line from 1965 to 1974 (at 122,000) and a descending line
from 1975 to 1979 (falling from 52,000 to 29,000).
The social and demographic characteristics of emigrants are not very clearly
known after 1960, when the official register covered less than half of
the departures actually taking place. Prior to 1960, the typical emigrant
was a single male, aged 15 to 35, and predominantly of rural origin. From
1960 to the early 1970s, when the process of family reunification became
predominant, and based on the registers of the receiving countries, what
we know is that the flow was predominantly composed of males of an active
age with few or no skills; departures were regarded both individually
as well as socially as a temporary situation, as a stage in a life cycle.
And finally, when compared with other migratory flows, Portuguese emigration
showed a considerable financial return in the form of remittances (Sopemi
1991,1992). In short, Portuguese emigration was essentially an international
movement of labour, mostly composed of migrants with few or no skills.
Due to the volume it attained and the financial return it yielded, such
emigration had an enormous economic and demographic impact on Portuguese
Demographic and Economic Impact of Emigration
The analysis of the natural and effective demographic growth occurring
between 1931 and 1980 shows that over half of the countrys natural
growth was absorbed by emigration,13 which means that the impact of emigration
on the countrys demographic growth was considerably greater, given
that a part of the potential growth never took place, since a considerable
proportion of the population of childbearing age had left the country
permanently (Nazareth 1976). It thus seems reasonable to accept that emigration
acted as an efficient demographic safety valve during this period.
That the returns yielded by emigration in the form of remittances were
of considerable influence on the countrys economy is also undeniable.
Two indicators are often mentioned to demonstrate the impact of emigration
on the Portuguese economy; the ratio of remittances to exports and the
ratio of remittances to Gross Domestic Product. Both corroborate what
has just been said. Table 3 summarises the evolution of remittances when
compared to exports in the period from 1950 to 1979. According to the
data, remittances bore a ratio of about 13% to exports during the 1950s,
25% in the 1960s, and 56% in the 1970s. Table 3 summarises the evolution
of remittances in relation to GDP from 1950 to 1979. The figures show
that remittances were of ever growing importance in relation to GDP -
2% in the 1950s, 4% in the 1960s, and 8% in the 1970s.
In short, during this period emigration was the single most valuable export,
since no other goods or services had such a share of Portuguese exports
(15). It makes no difference whether we consider remittances to be a major
safety net for the countrys imports or an addition to the countrys
own productive capacities; the conclusion is the same. The impact of emigration
on the Portuguese economy was drastic and increased throughout the period.
This point is of some importance, since, as has been successfully argued, to benefit fully from remittances, the sending country must be able
to depend on the flow being consistent and reliable, not subject to fluctuations
or secular decline (Heisler 1985:472). As has been seen, the
evolution of Portuguese emigrants remittances fits this pattern.
In the last part of this work, I shall try to assess the impact of emigration
on the Portuguese labour market throughout the 1960s, the period when,
as we have just seen, most of the departures took place. The question
that I will to try and answer is the following: was emigration harmful
to Portuguese economic growth? Or to put it slightly differently, had
those departures never taken place, could this situation have contributed
to economic growth?
Emigration and Economy
The answer to the above question may be approached from different perspectives.
My approach is based on economic development studies.14 One of the links
that these studies have highlighted is the interdependence existing between
the structure of human resources, per capita income and the rate of development
of any given economy. The strong correlation found between the percentage
of professional and technical workers in the active population and the
level of employment in the industrial sector is also of great interest
for the present analysis.15
An analysis of the first relationship, between the structure of human
resources, per capita income and the growth rate of an economy, was carried
out for the early 1960s by Mário Murteira (1969). From this analysis,
one first result is of particular interest: countries with an average
per capita income of US$600 had on average a higher share of scientific
and technical personnel than did Portugal, whilst the percentage of skilled
and unskilled workers was on average lower than that observed in Portugal.16 At that time, Portugal belonged to the group of countries that had a per
capita income of less than US$600, and therefore Murteiras results
suggest that given the countrys per capita income and the percentage
of scientific and technical personnel in the countrys active population,
job opportunities for skilled and unskilled workers could not have been
very different from those existing in the 1960s, since the percentage
of the active population engaged in these types of occupations was already
higher than expected.
If we accept that the level of scientific and technical personnel in the
active population restricts the level of industrial employment in an economy,
then the impact of emigration on the countrys economic growth can
be negative if it is proved that a significant proportion of the scientific
and technical population leaves during this period. The existing evidence
suggests otherwise. Not only do we know that the overwhelming majority
of the Portuguese who left did not belong to this group, but we know from
the study on wages made by Xavier Pintado that there was no economic reason
for this group to decide to emigrate, since they enjoyed identical purchasing
power and standards of living to their European counterparts.17
Although an unknown number of Portuguese scientific and technical workers
did in fact leave the country during this period, as a sign of opposition
to the regime or to avoid conscription, their number was not large enough
to have an impact on the structure of the active population. At least
this is what can be inferred from the occupational structure of Portuguese
emigrants entering France in 1970, where that group represented 0%. Of
the 88,634 entries registered by the National Immigration Office, only
31 persons belonged to this group (Ferreira 1976:165). It is true that
this was not the only destination of this group of migrants, but if their
number were larger, they would have been mostly noticeable in France.
The figures available on return migrants also confirm this point. 92%
of the returning population had no more than a primary school education,
only 1% had attended college, and 85% had not attended any training in
the host country (Silva et al. 1984:77 and 82). Furthermore, we should
note that these figures include the children of returning migrants and
thus are biased towards formal education.18
In short, the government seems to have correctly assessed the composition
of the outflow when, in the 1973 Bill on Emigration Policy (Proceedings
of the Chamber of Corporations, No. 142, 23 February 1973), it stated:
emigration of technical personnel is insignificant, as is that of
highly skilled workers. If it is not possible to attribute any responsibility
for non-economic emigration to the countrys economic growth, it
is even less possible to do so in the case of the economic emigration
of poorly skilled or unskilled active or non-active workers, since, given
the distorted structure of the active population at that time, their actually
remaining in the country would have been redundant. In fact, all evidence
suggests that their productive contribution could not be utilized, in
view of the shortage of scientific and technical personnel.19
In this work, through the description made of Portuguese emigration policy
under the corporatist regime, I have tried to point out that sending countries
are more than mere bystanders in the migratory process. I have, in fact,
gone a step further in claiming that, in the Portuguese case, not only
did the Estado Novo control the migratory flows that were occurring, but
it also used emigration to its own advantage. I have tried to present
evidence to show that, from an analysis of the individual characteristics
of migrants and their skills, it would seem that their exodus was not
harmful to the countrys economic growth during the 1960s, since,
when compared to other European countries, the percentage of scientific
and technical personnel was far too small to cope with an industrial labour
force larger than the existing one.
During my work, I became aware that my findings could contribute to the
longstanding debate on the benefits of emigration to the Portuguese economy.
In its simplest form, this debate is grounded in the basic idea that Portugal
exchanges one productive factor, labour, for another productive factor,
capital, in the form of remittances. What is thus evaluated is whether
the substitution of labour by capital has been beneficial or detrimental
to the domestic economy.20 The implicit assumption in this reasoning is
that emigration is an export of productive labour. My findings suggest
that, during this period, the most likely hypothesis is that the Portuguese
migratory flow was composed of migrants presenting zero marginal productivity
for the domestic economy.
Nunes, 1964; Almeida and Barreto, 1976; Serräo, 1977; Godinho,
2 Ferreira, 1976; Pereira and Barosa, 1989; Pereira, 1989.
3 Between 1950 and 1959, Italians represented more than half of the
total foreign inflow. In 1960, Spaniards equalled the number of Italians
entering France, with each nationality contributing 30,000 migrants
to a total of 72,600 arrivals. The Spaniards replaced the Italians as
the main suppliers of foreign labour to France from 1961 to 1965. From
1966 to 1972, Portugal replaced Spain as Frances main supplier
of immigrant labour.
4 Office National d Immigration for the given years, in Antunes,
1973, 73 and 109.
5 See Seruya, in Stahl et al., 1982, Kritz et al., 1983, Böhning,
1984, and Branco, 1986.
6 It is not possible to dissociate the formal beginning of the Corporative
Regime from the preceding Military Dictatorship that began on May 28,
1926, particularly after António Salazar re-entered the government
in 1928 as the Secretary of State for Finance, because the legal framework
that supported and gave coherence to the doctrinaire foundations of
the Estado Novo began to be enacted during this period.
7 For a different interpretation of the impact of the Estado Novo on
emigration see, Leeds, 1984.
8 A little earlier, Murteira and Branquinhos analysis of the countrys
economic performance had led them to a similar conclusion: The
relatively slow growth in employment (naturally together with the rapid
increase in productivity) leads us to believe that the [positive] evolution
of industrial productivity may somehow have been a consequence of emigration,...
Both wages and productivity are well below European levels, but while
the second has risen faster than its European counterparts, the first
has moved in the opposite direction. One can therefore conclude that,
as far as labour costs are concerned, the evolution has favoured the
Portuguese employers. A. Murteira and Branquinho, 1969:581
9 For a detailed analysis of the ideological bases of the regime, see
Braga da Cruz, 1984:773-794 and, for an analysis of its economic policy,
see Marques, 1988.
10 Law No. 19 354 of January of 1931 (Lei do Condicionamento
Industrial the Law of Industrial Conditioning). Law No. 1956
of May 1937 changed the character of the measures adopted in 1931 from
temporary to permanent.
11 For a detailed appraisal of the economic policy of this period, see
12 In 1959, a much less protective tariff was adopted and in 1961 Portugal
13 Between 1931 and 1970, the countrys natural growth (births
minus deaths) was 3,839.9 million and the effective growth (i.e. the
difference between the population present in the country at the beginning
and at the end of the period) was 1,742.8 million (computed from the
Boletim Anual, SEECP, 1980).
14 E.g. Murteira, et al., 1969; Carvalho, 1967.
15 An analysis of the interdependence between industrial employment
and scientific and technical manpower was carried out by Gnanasekaran
(1965), who found a series of links that made it possible to express
the interdependence between the structure of human resources and economic
16 It can be inferred from the results presented by Murteira (1969:
24, 29) that countries with a per capita income of US $600 had on average
4.6% of scientific, technical, and artistic active individuals, and
23.13% of skilled and unskilled active individuals. In Portugal, in
1960, such percentages were 2.8% and 27.9% respectively.
17 Xavier Pintado stated as follows: in terms of purchasing power
and standards of living, top-level management has higher salaries in
Portugal than in other industrialised countries. Pintado, 1967:73.
See also, Carvalho, 1967.
18 Poinard, 1963, Amaro, 1985, and Martins, 1986.
19 In fact, in view of the structure existing in 1960 and 1970, the
expected proportion of scientific and technical personnel would have
been roughly twice that of Portugal.
20 In the Portuguese case, more often than not, the positive effects,
namely the share of the remittances channelled to productive investment
and the benefits deriving from some new skills acquired by the returning
migrants, were judged insufficient to compensate for the loss of manpower.
Firstly, because, when compared to the share of remittances used for
private consumption, the impact of emigration on domestic capital formation
was considered to be small; secondly, because even this small effect
was considered to be offset by the inflationary tendencies produced
by the higher purchasing power of a growing segment of the population
receiving extra income from abroad; and, thirdly, because at the level
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