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Providence Journal/Brown University Survey

August 26-30, 2000

Weygand Leads Licht in U.S. Senate Democratic Primary; Democrats Trail Chafee in Senate General Election;

Langevin is Ahead of Coyne-McCoy in Second Congressional District Democratic Primary

A survey of 438 Rhode Island registered voters conducted August 26-30 also finds nearly half feel the state's health care system has gotten worse over the past year and 22 percent say they or a member of their immediate family have experienced problems in obtaining affordable health care in the last year. Voters are closely divided on the controversial issue of abortion.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Congressman Robert Weygand has a lead over former Lieutenant Governor Richard Licht, according to a new Providence Journal/Brown University statewide survey. However, the poll shows both Democrats trailing current U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee. Vice President Al Gore holds a comfortable margin over Republican nominee George W. Bush.

The survey was conducted August 26-30, 2000 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, director of the Taubman Center for Public Policy. It was based on a statewide random sample of 438 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, it had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points. The survey was sponsored by the Providence Journal.

Among the 300 voters who indicated they were likely to vote in the Democratic primary for Senate, Weygand leads Licht by 41 to 29 percent, with 30 percent unsure. This group of likely primary voters had a margin of error of about plus or minus six percentage points. In mid-August, according to a Mellman Group poll on behalf of the Licht campaign, Weygand led 39 to 27 with 34 percent undecided.

In looking at key demographic breakdowns, Weygand leads among union members by 51 to 29 percent, Democrats by 46 to 30 percent, Independents by 39 to 26 percent, and senior citizens by 36 to 26 percent. He also is beating Licht by 48 to 22 percent in Providence and 43 to 36 in the Warwick and Cranston areas.

	Weygand	Licht
Gender
Male	43%	27%
Female	40	29
Party
Independent	39	26
Democrat	46	30
Race
White	43	28
Non-White	29	35
Union Member
Yes	51	29
No	39	29
Age
18-24	67	20
25-34	50	31
35-44	42	26
45-54	33	41
55-64	48	24
65+	36	26
City
Providence	48	22
East Bay	36	36
Newport	47	30
Blackstone Valley	35	29
Warwick/Cranston	43	36
South County	32	32
Western RI	29	36

In order to examine how voters saw the candidates, we asked them whether Weygand or Licht would do a better job in the following areas. The results demonstrate that Licht is seen as more likely to keep abortion legal, but Weygand is viewed as more likely to improve health care and to be caring and trustworthy. By a 32 to 16 percent margin, more people are likely to blame Licht than Weygand for the negative campaigning that has taken place in this race.

	Weygand	Licht
Keeping abortion legal	17%	37%
Improving health care	29	20
Reducing taxes	28	12
Caring about people like you	32	17
Being trusted to keep word	33	13
Improving education	29	15
Responsibility for negative campaigning	16	32

In the Democratic primary for the second congressional district, among the 152 voters who indicated they were likely to vote in this second district primary, Secretary of State James Langevin is favored by 37 percent, followed by 21 percent for Kate Coyne-McCoy, 6 percent for Kevin McAllister, and 3 percent for Angel Tavares. Thirty-three percent are undecided. The margin of error for this primary result is about plus or minus seven percentage points. A Mellman Group survey commissioned by Langevin found a week ago that Langevin led Coyne-McCoy by 41 to 18 percent, with 4 percent for McAllister, 2 percent for Tavares, and 35 percent undecided.

Demographic breakdowns indicate that Langevin has a bigger margin over Coyne-McCoy among men (38 to 14 percent) than women (36 to 27 percent). Among Democrats, Langevin is ahead of Coyne-McCoy by 36 to 29 percent, but has a bigger margin of 38 to 17 among Independents. With union members, Coyne-McCoy leads Langevin by 35 to 30 percent. In Providence, Langevin leads Coyne-McCoy by 36 to 22 percent and by 45 to 19 percent in Warwick and Cranston, and by 40 to 16 percent among senior citizens.

	Langevin	Coyne-McCoy	McAllister	Taveras
Gender
Male	38%	14%	11%	6%
Female	36	27	1	1
Party
Independent	38	17	6	2
Democrat	36	29	5	4
Race
White	39	21	4	2
Non-White	14	18	18	9
Union Member
Yes	30	35	4	4
No	36	18	7	3
Age
18-24	0	40	20	20
25-34	25	19	12	6
35-44	33	19	4	0
45-54	44	26	4	4
55-64	46	18	4	0
65+	40	16	5	3
City
Providence	36	22	10	3
Warwick/Cranston	45	19	2	5
South County	38	19	5	3
Western RI	14	29	0	0

When asked which candidate would do a better job in the following areas, Coyne-McCoy is seen as more likely to keep abortion legal, while Langevin is viewed as more likely to be trusted to keep his word. On health care, about as many people think Coyne-McCoy would do a better job as felt that way about Langevin. By a 21 to 13 percent margin, more blame Coyne-McCoy than Langevin for the negative campaigning in this contest.

	Langevin	Coyne-McCoy	McAllister	Taveras
Keeping abortion legal	11%	37%	4%	1%
Improving health care	23	21	4	2
Reducing taxes	26	12	4	2
Caring about people like you	25	20	3	2
Being trusted to keep word	24	16	4	2
Improving education	26	16	4	2
Responsibility for negative campaigning	13	21	1	2

In the contest for U.S. Senate, Senator Lincoln Chafee has a lead over his rivals. If Congressman Robert Weygand is the Democratic nominee, 48 percent say they would support Chafee, 31 percent claim they would vote for Weygand, 1 percent each favor Reform party candidate Christopher Young and independent candidate Kenneth Proulx, and 19 percent are unsure.

Demographic breakdowns reveal that Chafee runs well among Independents (besting Weygand by 55 to 25 percent) and is drawing 29 percent of the Democratic vote and 20 percent of non-whites. Chafee also leads Weygand among union members by 54 to 28 percent, among senior citizens by 53 to 25 percent, and in Providence by 42 to 35 percent.

	Chafee	Weygand	Young	Proulx
Gender
Male	47%	34%	2%	1%
Female	50	29	0	1
Party
Republican	90	6	0	0
Independent	55	25	1	2
Democrat	29	51	0	0
Race
White	53	29	0	1
Non-White	20	44	2	2
Union Member
Yes	54	28	0	0
No	48	32	1	1
Age
18-24	35	44	4	0
25-34	39	50	0	0
35-44	45	34	1	1
45-54	59	21	1	1
55-64	44	33	0	2
65+	53	25	0	0
City
Providence	42	35	1	1
East Bay	64	23	4	0
Newport	47	31	0	0
Blackstone Valley	43	37	0	2
Warwick/Cranston	59	24	0	0
South County	55	26	2	0
Western RI	60	15	0	5

U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee also leads if Richard Licht is the Democratic nominee. Fifty percent say they would support Chafee, 21 percent claim they would vote for Licht, 1 percent each favor Reform party candidate Christopher Young and independent candidate Kenneth Proulx, and 27 percent are unsure.

Chafee runs well across various demographic categories. He attracts 53 percent of the union vote, 30 percent of the Democratic vote, 34 percent of the non-white vote, and 55 percent of the senior citizens vote. He leads Licht by 49 to 22 percent in Providence.

	Chafee	Licht	Young	Proulx
Gender
Male	56%	23%	2%	1%
Female	48	20	0	1
Party
Republican	88	2	0	0
Independent	59	17	0	2
Democrat	30	35	1	0
Race
White	54	19	1	1
Non-White	34	34	2	2
Union Member
Yes	53	20	0	0
No	52	21	1	1
Age
18-24	43	19	5	0
25-34	48	35	0	0
35-44	48	21	1	1
45-54	57	23	0	1
55-64	48	21	3	2
65+	55	15	0	0
City
Providence	49	22	1	1
East Bay	46	32	0	0
Newport	44	24	0	0
Blackstone Valley	45	28	1	1
Warwick/Cranston	61	18	2	0
South County	55	12	2	0
Western RI	74	10	0	5

Congressman Patrick Kennedy holds a commanding lead of 68 to 16 percent over GOP challenger Steven Cabral among the 209 registered voters in the first district. Kennedy runs better among women than men, earns 88 percent of the Democratic vote, and garners 81 percent of the non-white support.

	Kennedy	Cabral
Gender
Male	63%	18%
Female	71	15
Party
Republican	21	54
Independent	67	16
Democrat	88	7
Race
White	68	18
Non-White	81	0
Union Member
Yes	72	13
No	69	18
Age
18-24	40	20
25-34	78	13
35-44	69	22
45-54	77	12
55-64	62	17
65+	68	19
City
Providence	62	19
East Bay	82	14
Newport	69	16
Blackstone Valley	67	16

In the presidential general election matchup, Gore garners support from 54 percent compared to 23 percent who say they will vote for Bush. Five percent indicate they prefer Green party candidate Ralph Nader, two percent say they support Reform party nominee Pat Buchanan, and 16 percent are undecided. Last February, Gore was ahead of Bush by 39 to 25 percent, with 36 percent unsure.

In an open-ended question, we asked people what they thought the most important problem was facing the state and then classified answers into policy categories. The top issue named this month was health care, followed by ethics and corruption (named by 15 percent of voters), education (14%,) and taxes (6%). Only three individuals (less than 1 percent) named abortion as the most important state problem. Last February, when we asked the most important problem question, 13 percent named taxes, followed by ethics and corruption (11%), jobs and unemployment (10%), education (9%), health care (6%), business climate (5%), the economy (5%), roads (3%), race (5%), politicians and government performance (2%), crime (2%), the environment (2%), and budget (2%) . All other problems named were under 2%

Most Important Problem	August, 2000	February, 2000
Health care	20%	6%
Ethics/Corruption	15	11
Education	14	9
Taxes	6	13
Crime	5	2
Politicians and Govt	5	2
Jobs/Unemployment	3	10
Violence	3	1
Environment	2	2
Business Climate	2	5

On the controversial subject of abortion, 45 percent say abortion should be generally available to those who want it, 32 percent feel abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now, 12 percent believe abortion should not be permitted, and 11 percent are unsure.

The following table shows variations in abortion support across demographic categories.

	Generally Available	Stricter Limits	Not Permitted
Gender
Male	43%	36%	15%
Female	51	32	11
Party
Republican	32	34	30
Independent	47	40	10
Democrat	54	27	10
Race
White	48	34	13
Non-White	47	38	11
Union Member
Yes	42	44	9
No	49	32	14
Age
18-24	44	35	17
25-34	58	29	11
35-44	49	33	12
45-54	46	41	10
55-64	51	33	13
65+	44	32	14
City
Providence	53	32	10
East Bay	55	41	0
Newport	55	30	14
Blackstone Valley	39	36	19
Warwick/Cranston	48	33	14
South County	45	33	17
Western RI	35	50	5

In terms of how this issue affects candidate preferences in the Senate Democratic primary, Weygand holds a bigger lead (46 to 36 percent) among those who feel abortion should not be permitted than among those who feel it generally should be available (39 to 35 percent).

	Weygand	Licht
Abortion Generally Available	39%	35%
Stricter Limits	44	22
Abortion Not Permitted	46	36

In the Congressional Democratic primary, abortion holds a stronger link to the vote. Langevin's lead over Coyne-McCoy swells from 32 to 27 among those who feel abortion generally should be available to 57 to 0 percent among those believing abortion should not be permitted.

	Langevin	Coyne-McCoy	McAllister	Tavares
Abortion Generally Available	32%	27%	5%	4%
Stricter Limits	35	16	7	2
Abortion Not Permitted	57	0	14	7

Twenty-two percent said they or a member of their immediate family had experienced problems in obtaining affordable health care in the last year. Forty-seven percent believe Rhode Island's health care system has gotten worse over the past year. However, 73 percent rate the quality of the health care they have received over the past year as excellent or good. Sixty-eight percent express support for having Medicare cover prescription drug expenses for senior citizens even if it meant they would have to pay more.

The following tables show demographic breakdowns for the health care questions.

	Problems Obtaining Health Care	No Problems
Gender
Male	19%	78%
Female	25	74
Party
Republican	18	80
Independent	21	78
Democrat	26	71
Race
White	22	77
Non-White	31	62
Union Member
Yes	23	76
No	23	76
Age
18-24	30	70
25-34	27	69
35-44	26	73
45-54	31	69
55-64	22	75
65+	13	85
City
Providence	24	72
East Bay	27	73
Newport	30	68
Blackstone Valley	18	81
Warwick/Cranston	23	77
South County	13	85
Western RI	35	65

RI Health Care System

	Better	Same	Worse
Gender
Male	10%	39%	42%
Female	7	30	55
Party
Republican	8	42	32
Independent	7	34	54
Democrat	12	33	46
Race
White	8	34	50
Non-White	13	33	40
Union Member
Yes	14	32	47
No	7	35	49
Age
18-24	22	30	35
25-34	7	38	49
35-44	6	39	46
45-54	10	25	62
55-64	6	27	56
65+	9	40	40
City
Providence	10	38	43
East Bay	9	36	55
Newport	9	28	54
Blackstone Valley	8	29	50
Warwick/Cranston	8	29	64
South County	5	38	47
Western RI	5	35	50

Personal Health Care

	Excellent	Good	Only Fair	Poor
Gender
Male	30%	46%	16%	5%
Female	33	46	14	5
Party
Republican	34	44	14	6
Independent	34	46	14	4
Democrat	31	45	14	6
Race
White	34	46	14	4
Non-White	20	44	20	11
Union Member
Yes	33	45	10	9
No	32	46	15	4
Age
18-24	22	48	22	4
25-34	22	49	18	7
35-44	24	57	13	4
45-54	37	41	12	7
55-64	44	36	13	5
65+	33	44	16	4
City
Providence	30	47	14	6
East Bay	41	46	14	0
Newport	30	48	9	9
Blackstone Valley	30	44	20	5
Warwick/Cranston	40	39	19	2
South County	35	48	10	5
Western RI	15	50	20	5

Prescription Drug Coverage

	Support	Oppose
Gender
Male	71%	23%
Female	73	13
Party
Republican	63	29
Independent	74	17
Democrat	77	15
Race
White	73	17
Non-White	70	23
Union Member
Yes	80	13
No	71	19
Age
18-24	78	17
25-34	75	20
35-44	76	16
45-54	79	12
55-64	76	11
65+	62	24
City
Providence	73	15
East Bay	82	18
Newport	82	11
Blackstone Valley	75	15
Warwick/Cranston	77	15
South County	60	28
Western RI	65	30

There was no difference in preference for Weygand or Licht for those who indicated they had problems in obtaining affordable health care. However, with those who had no problems in obtaining health care, Weygand leads Licht by 43 to 27 percent.

	Weygand	Licht
Problems Obtaining Health Care	38%	38%
No Problems	43	27

Coyne-McCoy runs stronger with voters who indicated they have had problems in obtaining affordable health care. Among that group, she leads Langevin by 30 to 23 percent. With those who have not had problems, Langevin is ahead by 39 to 18 percent.

	Langevin	Coyne-McCoy	McAllister	Tavares
Problems Obtaining Health Care	23%	30%	7%	0%
No Problems	39	18	6	5

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163 or see the website: www.InsidePolitics.org.

Survey Questions and Responses

If the election for president were held today, would you vote for the Republican George W. Bush, Democrat Al Gore, Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, or Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan? 23% Bush, 54% Gore, 5% Nader, 2% Buchanan, 16% don't know or no answer

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for the Republican Lincoln Chafee, Democrat Robert Weygand, Reform party candidate Christopher Young, or independent candidate Kenneth Proulx? 48% Chafee, 31% Weygand, 1% Young, 1% Proulx, 19% don't know or no answer

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for the Republican Lincoln Chafee, Democrat Richard Licht, Reform party candidate Christopher Young, or independent candidate Kenneth Proulx? 50% Chafee, 21% Licht, 1% Young, 1% Proulx, 27% don't know or no answer

(first congressional district only) If the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Republican Steven Cabral or Democrat Patrick Kennedy? 16% Cabral, 68% Kennedy, 16% don't know or no answer

(likely Democratic primary voters only) If the Democratic Senate candidates were Robert Weygand or Richard Licht, would you vote for: 41% Weygand, 29% Licht, 30% don't know or no answer

(likely second congressional district Democratic primary voters only) If the Democratic Congressional candidates were James Langevin, Kate Coyne-McCoy, Kevin McAllister, or Angel Tavares, would you vote for: 37% Langevin, 21% Coyne-McCoy, 6% McAllister, 3% Tavares, 33% don't know or no answer

(likely Democratic primary voters only) Which candidate would do a better job in the following areas:

a) keeping abortion legal: 17% Weygand, 37% Licht, 46% don't know or no answer

b) improving health care: 29% Weygand, 20% Licht, 51% don't know or no answer

c) reducing taxes: 28% Weygand, 12% Licht, 60% don't know or no answer

d) caring about people like you: 32% Weygand, 17% Licht, 51% don't know or no answer

e) being trusted to keep word: 33% Weygand, 13% Licht, 54% don't know or no answer

f) improving education: 29% Weygand, 15% Licht, 56% don't know or no answer

(likely Democratic primary voters only) Who do you think is more responsible for the negative campaigning that has taken place in this race? 16% Weygand, 32% Licht, 52% don't know or no answer

(likely second congressional district Democratic primary voters only) Which candidate would do a better job in the following areas:

a) keeping abortion legal: 11% Langevin, 37% Coyne-McCoy, 4% McAllister, 1% Tavares, 47% don't know or no answer

b) improving health care: 23% Langevin, 21% Coyne-McCoy, 4% McAllister, 2% Tavares, 50% don't know or no answer

c) reducing taxes: 26% Langevin, 12% Coyne-McCoy, 4% McAllister, 2% Tavares, 56% don't know or no answer

d) caring about people like you: 25% Langevin, 20% Coyne-McCoy, 3% McAllister, 2% Tavares, 50% don't know or no answer

e) being trusted to keep word: 24% Langevin, 16% Coyne-McCoy, 4% McAllister, 2% Tavares, 54% don't know or no answer

f) improving education: 26% Langevin, 16% Coyne-McCoy, 4% McAllister, 2% Tavares, 52% don't know or no answer

(likely second congressional district primary voters only) Who do you think is more responsible for the negative campaigning that has taken place in this race? 13% Langevin, 21% Coyne-McCoy, 1% McAllister, 2% Tavares, 63% don't know or no answer

As far as you are concerned, what is the most important problem facing the state of Rhode Island today? (open-ended answers coded as: 20% health care, 15% ethics and corruption, 14% education, 6% taxes, 5% crime, 5% politicians and government, 3% jobs/unemployment, 3% violence, 2% environment, 2% business climate) (all others mentioned were under 2%)

Which of these comes closest to your view? 45% abortion should be generally available to those who want it, 32% abortion should be available, but under stricter limits than it is now, 12% abortion should not be permitted, 11% don't know or no answer

Have you or a member of your immediate family experienced problems in obtaining affordable health care in the last year? 22% yes, 72% no, 6% don't know or no answer

Do you feel Rhode Island's health care system has: 8% gotten better, 32% stayed about the same, or 47% gotten worse over the past year? 13% don't know or no answer

How would you describe the quality of the health care you and your immediate family have received over the past year: 30% excellent, 43% good, 14% only fair, 5% poor, 8% don't know or no answer

Would you support or oppose having the Medicare insurance program cover prescription drug expenses for senior citizens even if it meant you'd have to pay more? 68% support, 17% oppose, 15% don't know or no answer