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Brown University

Vol. 10 Issue 3, October 1997

This report will review these and other results concerning views about major issues facing the state. It is based on the findings of a statewide poll of 406 registered voters in Rhode Island conducted September 20 to 22, 1997 at Brown University by Darrell M. West, professor of political science and director of the John Hazen White, Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory, Thomas J. Anton, director of the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions, and Jack Combs, the Center’s research administrator. Overall, it had a margin of error of about plus or minus five percentage points.

Index of Consumer Sentiment

Attitudes about the economy are an important measure of public opinion. In June, 1992, we inaugurated an Index of Consumer Sentiment modeled after the national Index developed at the University of Michigan. Researchers there use an Index based on five questions regarding consumer confidence: how people are getting along financially, whether they expect to be better off a year from now, views about business conditions, impressions of whether there will be good times or widespread unemployment during the next five years, and whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items. This index is tracked over time to determine how optimistic or pessimistic people are feeling.

Taking this Index as a model, we asked five identical questions about the economy in Rhode Island. As done in the national Index, we took the percentage of favorable replies minus the percent giving unfavorable replies to each of these questions (plus 100 points for each difference to ensure a positive number). These five differences then are summed and divided by the 1966 base period total of 6.7558 (with 2.0 added as a constant to correct for Michigan sample design changes since the 1950s).

The Index of Consumer Sentiment for Rhode Island was 91.6 in September, up sharply from our last reading of 87.1 in June (see Figure 1). This is the highest reading the state has had since 1992. The Index hit a low of 68.3 in September, 1992.

Job Performance

The Taubman Center also has investigated public assessments about the performance in office of top elected officials. Called approval ratings, these numbers measure the popularity of political leaders and citizen satisfaction with overall performance.

Figure 2 lists the results for public assessments of job performance. When asked how they would rate the job Clinton is doing as president, 52 percent say it is excellent or good, 45 percent claim it is only fair or poor, and 3 percent are undecided. In June, 46 percent said it was excellent or good, 50 percent claimed it was only fair or poor, and 4 percent were undecided.

There also are interesting results for other federal officials. Senator John Chafee’s job performance ratings are 53 percent excellent or good, up from his 50 percent in June. Thirty-seven percent rate his performance only fair or poor, up from 35 percent previously. Fifty-three percent give Senator Jack Reed excellent or good ratings, and 28 percent rate him only fair or poor. In June, 47 percent said he was doing an excellent or good job.

Governor Lincoln Almond’s job performance ratings are up from his earlier numbers. Forty-four percent thought it was excellent or good, 50 percent only fair or poor, and 6 percent unsure. This compares to the 40 percent who saw his performance as excellent or good in June, 55 percent who believed it was only fair or poor, and 5 percent who were unsure.

There are differences in the expected direction based on party groupings. Sixty-six percent of Republicans rate him excellent or good (compared to 62 percent in June) and 32 percent say he has done only fair or poor. Thirty-nine percent of Democrats say he has done an excellent or good job (the same as in June), while 50 percent believe he has done only fair or poor. Among the crucial swing group of Independents, Almond’s ratings are 45 percent excellent or good (up from 32 percent in June) and 53 percent only fair or poor.

In regard to other state officials, 52 percent believe Attorney General Jeff Pine is doing an excellent or good job (up from 50 percent in June), compared to 59 percent for Treasurer Nancy Mayer (the same as in June), and 45 percent for Secretary of State Jim Langevin (the same as in June).

Twenty-one percent rate Speaker John Harwood’s job performance as excellent or good (the same as in June) while 38 percent say it is only fair or poor, and 41 percent are unsure. Senate Majority Leader Paul Kelly’s job was rated excellent or good by 22 percent (the same as in June), 33 percent felt it was only fair or poor, and 45 percent were unsure.

State Direction

Another way in which public sentiment about the state as a whole is measured is through a "right direction/wrong track" question. In this item, people are questioned as to whether they think "things in Rhode Island are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track." Designed to measure public perceptions as a whole independent of particular public officials, this question allows us to track views about overall conditions within the state.

Fifty-nine percent said they believed the state was headed in the right direction, 32 percent believed the state had gotten off on the wrong track, and 9 percent were unsure. Our last reading in February showed that 52 percent believed the state was headed in the right direction, 39 percent felt it was off on the wrong track, and 9 percent were unsure.

Most Important Problem

The last few years have been a time of great concern for many people. To get a sense of voters’ priorities during this crucial period, we have been giving them an open-ended question which asks them to name the most important problem facing the state of Rhode Island today. After coding their responses into general categories, we found that 24 percent said unemployment and jobs, 11 percent say government spending, 7 percent say taxes, 7 percent name education, 7 percent claim it is the economy, 6 percent cite the business climate, 6 percent name politicians and government, 5 percent name ethics and corruption, 4 percent say crime, 4 percent name roads, and 2 percent feel it is welfare (see Table 1).

In June, 21 percent said unemployment and jobs, 10 percent said taxes, 9 percent named education, 8 percent cited the business climate, 6 percent named ethics and corruption, 5 percent claimed it was the economy, 5 percent named politicians and government, 4 percent said government spending, 4 percent named welfare, 3 percent said the roads, and 2 percent said crime.

Kennedy/Chafee

There were interesting variations in job performance ratings of Kennedy and Chafee by party, gender, age, and region (see Table 2). Kennedy earns more positive ratings from Democrats (62 percent) than Independents (38 percent) and Republicans (25 percent). Chafee does better with Republicans (57 percent) and Democrats (64 percent) than Independents (49 percent).

Kennedy’s job performance is rated more highly by women (50 percent) than men (37 percent positive), while Chafee also does better among women (56 percent) than men (49 percent).

Kennedy does best among the youngest and oldest voters. His weakest age groups are middle-aged voters aged 35 to 54. Chafee’s strongest age group are senior citizens. Fifty-nine percent feel he is doing an excellent or good job, compared to 45 percent who feel that way about Kennedy.

In terms of regional breakdowns, Kennedy earns the highest marks from Providence (52 percent), West Bay (51 percent), and East Bay (50 percent), but not as well in Newport (26 percent), Northwest Rhode Island (29 percent), or South County (34 percent).

Chafee earns high marks from Newport (67 percent) and East Bay (62 percent) and not as strong marks from Northwest Rhode Island (43 percent) and Providence (47 percent).

Proposed Stadium

Voters in Rhode Island are nearly evenly split in their feelings about the proposed downtown stadium. When asked if they favor construction of this new stadium, 41 percent favor the stadium, 47 percent oppose it, and 12 percent are unsure. Sentiment is more negative when voters are asked their opinion of a stadium that would require state revenue bonds of $80 to $120 million, to be repaid with tax revenues generated by the stadium. Fifty-seven percent oppose such a stadium, 32 percent favor it, and 11 percent are undecided.

These numbers are more positive than public sentiment on the Providence Place mall early in that project. A Brown University survey conducted in February, 1994 found that 69 percent opposed and 20 percent favored a new shopping mall if it required a public investment of as much as $100 million.

There are substantial differences in public preferences about the proposed deal based on geography, sex, age, and party identification (see Table 3). The area least supportive of the agreement was Newport (23 percent), while the one most in favor of the project was Blackstone Valley (39 percent). There is a gender gap on the stadium with men being more in favor (36 percent) then women (26 percent). Senior citizens are much less supportive of the stadium than young adults. In terms of party leanings, Democrats (38 percent) are most supportive, followed by Republicans (36 percent) and Independents (29 percent).

Stadium Strengths

Sixty-nine percent believe that the national media exposure that comes along with having a major league sports franchise will make the state more attractive to those from outside of Rhode Island. Thirty-eight percent think that having a major league sports franchise in the state would make them feel proud to be a Rhode Islander. Fifty-seven percent say the new stadium would benefit the Rhode Island economy a lot or some. Forty-eight percent believe having a major league sports franchise will make people feel better about the state.

Stadium Weaknesses

However, 66 percent believe that the public investment should be devoted to other purposes. Three-quarters worry about the stadium impact on Route 95 traffic and the state’s longterm debt. An overwhelming majority (85 percent) think the proposal should be subject to voter approval in a referendum. Sixty-six percent feel the proposal should be subject to approval by the General Assembly.

Public Financing

We asked people in the state which particular stadium aspects should be publicly financed through state revenue bonds. Things viewed most positively were reimbursing Providence for fire and safety protection (44 percent), followed by building highway ramps (39 percent) and acquiring the land for the stadium (32 percent). There was less support (30 percent) for stadium parking, building some of the stadium (29 percent), demolishing buildings (25 percent), building a hotel or sports museum (18 percent) or for publicly financing luxury skyboxes (12 percent).

Almond and Cianci Handling of Stadium

Those questioned give mixed marks to Governor Almond and Mayor Cianci for their respective handling of the stadium. Forty percent say Almond’s handling of the issue has been excellent or good, while 28 percent think it has been only fair and 20 percent believe it has been poor. Forty-three percent rate Cianci’s job on the stadium as excellent or good, 23 percent say only fair, and 18 percent feel it has been poor.

Editor: Darrell M. West
Associate Editor: Jack D. Combs

Copyright (c) 1997 Brown University.