Outside the Nigerian Aviary

World Cup Qualifiers Leave Little Time to Mend Broken Wings

By Kris Udekwu

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art by A. Graham Cumberbatch
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A week or so ago, I called my father with some news I thought he deserved to know (when I do this, it's typically news that bothers me and not him): I told him that Nigeria, one of Africa's best footballing nations and a nation he and I call home, might not qualify for the 2006 World Cup in Germany. He didn't seem to be as disappointed as I thought he would be, which was surprising but also understandable. If there is one thing Nigerians know about their national football (the type of football where the ball stays at the feet), it's disappointment. Of course we remember their showing at the 1994 World Cup in the United States, where they came within a whisper of ousting eventual runners-up Italy. And who can forget Nigeria's golden performance in Atlanta in 1996? But the closest Nigeria has come to international glory since then has been through its youth team, which played its way to the finals of the FIFA (Federation Internationale de Football Association, football's international governing body) World Youth Championship earlier this summer. The team, however, collapsed 2-1 under pressure from Argentina giving up two penalties in a characteristically frustrating game. Those brighter spots aside, lackluster international performances have been the mainstay of Nigerian football in the last few years. Missing out on the first World Cup after three consecutive appearances would be a tragedy for Nigeria, but with a history filled with near misses and unfulfilled hopes, it's nothing short of what most Nigerians have come to accept and expect as the national standard.

No Lotion Could Unclog These Pores

The African qualifying zone for the 2006 World Cup only allows for the leaders of five groups (each composed of six teams) to qualify for the finals in Germany next summer. Nigeria sits at the top of group four alongside Angola. Both teams have an identical record, except Nigeria has scored more goals during group play than Angola. So what could possibly prevent Nigeria from qualifying? Quite simply: head-to-head statistics.

During the group stage, teams gain points for their performances in matches. The team that finishes with the most points will advance past that stage into another group drawing with those games being played out in Germany next summer. Each team gains three points for a win, one point for a draw, and no points for loss. In the event of a tie in the group stage, certain statistics are analyzed in order to break the tie. Head-to-head statistics (or the results of the games between the two teams tied for first) are the first set of those tiebreakers taken into account. The points of these games are added up, and whatever team has the most points from these matches will proceed. Angola has four points in two matches against Nigeria with a win in June 2004 and a tie in June 2005. Nigeria only has one point from their home turf draw with Angola in Kano a few months ago. Nigeria still has a game in hand against Zimbabwe on October 7th but based on head-to-head statistics, Angola only needs to win their final game, which is away in Kigali, Rwanda, in order to qualify for the 2006 World Cup. Much to my chagrin, Angola's opponent in Rwanda is not looking as formidable as I hoped, noting their position at the bottom of the group four table. Should Angola defeat Rwanda, it will be their first trip to a World Cup in the history of their country's international football career. Meanwhile, the Nigerians have more to blame than the head-to-head rule for keeping them from Germany next summer.

For Club And/Or Country?

Nigeria's meteoric rise to the forefront of world football is highlighted by the influx of its best players into top leagues and teams around the globe. International premier leagues such as Ligue 1 (France), the Dutch Eredivisie (the Netherlands), Serie A (Italy), the German Bundesliga, La Liga (Spain), and particularly the English Premier League, all play host to a wealth of Nigerian talent. So if these Nigerian men are playing so well for their clubs, why can't they play well for their country? The jet-set life of international football these days definitely contributes to the strain felt by players. Flying from club game to national side game and back again can certainly have a negative effect on one's play, but at this point it raises the question of which is more important: international glory or accolades with a club that has no ties to one's native land? Nigerian captain Jay-Jay Okocha, for instance, picked up an injury with his English club Bolton Wanderers and had to sit out Nigeria's 5-2 devastation of Algeria earlier this month. Perhaps the answer to that question is in the paycheck that comes from the club instead of the Nigerian Football Association.

Continental Drift

Despite how disappointed I was at Nigeria's current qualifying status, I did feel some traces of excitement when I looked at the rest of Africa's World Cup qualifying proceedings. Many of the teams that top the groups are outside the set of teams that usually leave Africa in search of World Cup glory every four years. For instance, Togo and Ghana, who have yet to qualify for a World Cup in their histories, head groups one and two respectively, while fellow potential first timers Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) nip at the heels of perennial powerhouse Cameroon in group three. Should Togo and Ghana stay atop their groups, and should Cote d'Ivoire overcome Cameroon, the freshness of the African representation in Germany next summer will be beyond impressive.

Furthermore, the qualifying events outside of Africa have also been anything but typical. Highly touted teams such as Spain and England have been disappointing as of late, especially with England being upset dramatically by Northern Ireland 1-0 in Belfast. This lack of predictability should be enough to excite any soccer fan. Who knows? It's distinctly possible that Angola could draw or perhaps even lose their game with Rwanda, thus allowing Nigeria to qualify. Once the drawing for the World Cup groups takes place, it will be very interesting to see where these new faces, especially those from Africa, are placed. It will be more than exciting for any soccer fan, regardless of national allegiance, to see any of these fresh African teams progress past the group stage next summer.

Cardinal Directions

Many Nigerians are now taking a look at some contingency plans, mostly in other international and continental competitions. Should they miss out on the World Cup, there are a few high profile competitions Nigeria can set their sights on in the near future. The 2006 African Cup of Nations in Egypt looks pretty appealing, as it would give Nigeria a chance to channel their frustration into a good showing against the best the continent has to offer in early 2006. A more painful option involves a look south for the 2010 World Cup, which will be hosted by South Africa. Perhaps Nigeria missing out on a World Cup is just what the country needs to snap itself back into the form reminiscent of a national side capable of competing with any team in the world. Maybe we need a break to reorganize ourselves. That or we'll just sit back on our heels like we usually do.

Watching the tournament next summer will be a treat nonetheless (as it always is), especially if they play out like other World Cups in recent history. In the 2002 finals in Korea/Japan, for example, France (World Cup hosts and champions in 1998), were knocked out of the group stage in a crash-and-burn fashion highlighted by their loss to lowly Senegal in the first match of the competition. Should Nigeria fail to qualify, the disappointment will stem far beyond sport. In a country that is bogged down by political corruption, civil unrest, and violence on a daily basis, national sports and international competitions are perhaps the only unifying and pacifying events. For most countries that suffer from scandalous and violent problems from the political to the civil level, football embodies the hope that the nation will emerge victorious and united. Hopefully Nigerians aren't content with mediocrity off the pitch as well.

Kris Udekwu B'08 never collapses under pressure.

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