Public opinion survey

Almond leads York in governor's race; Whitehouse leads Mayer for attorney general; Clinton behavior condemned, job performance approved

A survey of 304 Rhode Island voters conducted Sept. 19-20, 1998, finds Almond leading York in governor's race and Whitehouse leading Mayer for attorney general. Voters think President Clinton lied to the grand jury and committed perjury, but favor censure over impeachment or resignation. Clinton's job performance is rated highly.

PROVIDENCE, R.I. -- Rhode Island faces several close elections this fall, according to a new statewide survey. Gov. Lincoln Almond has a narrow lead over his Democratic opponent Myrth York. Former U.S. Attorney Sheldon Whitehouse is ahead of Treasurer Nancy Mayer in the race for attorney general. The survey also inquired as to people's views about President Bill Clinton and Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr. Only one-third of voters see a possible Clinton campaign visit as an asset for state Democrats. Two-thirds believe Starr used unfair tactics in his investigation of the president.

The survey was conducted Sept. 19 - 20, 1998, at Brown University by Darrell M. West, professor of political science and director of the John Hazen White Sr. Public Opinion Laboratory; Thomas J. Anton, director of the A. Alfred Taubman Center for Public Policy and American Institutions; and Jack Combs, the Center's research administrator. It was based on a statewide random sample of 304 registered voters in Rhode Island. Overall, it had a margin of error of about plus or minus five and one-half percentage points.

In the governor's race, Almond has opened a small lead over his rivals. When asked whom they would prefer if the election were held today, 41 percent named Almond, 35 percent said York, 9 percent named Cool Moose Party candidate Robert Healey, 2 percent cited Reform Party candidate John Devine, and 13 percent were undecided. In May, 40 percent named Almond, 32 percent said York, 9 percent named Healey, 1 percent cited Devine, and 18 percent were undecided

Sheldon Whitehouse is ahead of Nancy Mayer in the attorney general's contest by 46 to 40 percent, with 14 percent undecided. In May, Mayer led Whitehouse 51 to 28 percent.

In the election for lieutenant governor, incumbent Bernard Jackvony trails Democratic State Sen. Charles Fogarty by 34 to 26 percent, while Green Party candidate Jeff Johnson earns 4 percent, Reform Party candidate John Carlevale is at 2 percent, and 34 percent are undecided. In May, Fogarty led Jackvony 39 to 29 percent, while in January, he was ahead 37 to 21 percent.

In the election for treasurer, Democrat Paul Tavares has a lead of 35 to 18 percent over Republican James Bennett, with Reform Party candidate Victor Moffitt at 7 percent and 40 percent undecided. In May, Tavares led Bennett by 26 to 20 percent, with Moffitt trailing at 8 percent.

In the race for secretary of state, Democrat James Langevin leads Republican Edward Lopez by 59 to 13 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

In the First District race for Congress, Democrat Patrick Kennedy leads Republican Ron Santa 64 to 11 percent among district voters, with Reform Party candidate James Sheehan earning 3 percent, Legalized Freedom Party candidate Charles Picerno garnering 3 percent, and 19 percent undecided. In May, Kennedy was ahead by 59 to 19 percent and in January he was ahead of Santa by 60 to 21 percent.

In the Second District Congressional race, Democrat Robert Weygand is supported by 61 percent, compared to 11 percent for Republican John Matson, 2 percent for Reform Party candidate Tim Miller. Twenty-six percent were undecided. In May, Weygand was ahead by 54 to 13 percent, with Miller at 5 percent.

In addition, the survey inquired about voter beliefs regarding the Clinton scandal. Sixty-nine percent believe President Bill Clinton misled the public about his affair with Monica Lewinsky, 69 percent believe he engaged in conduct unbecoming a president, 62 percent think he lied to the grand jury, and 53 percent feel he committed perjury in his testimony.

Based on this behavior, 63 percent think he should be censured or reprimanded by Congress, but only 31 percent think he should resign and 17 percent feels he should be impeached. If Clinton were to come to Rhode Island to campaign for state Democratic candidates, 38 percent think he would be an asset, 38 percent believe he would be a liability, and 24 percent are unsure. Sixty-five percent believe Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr used unfair tactics in his search for information about the president and 76 percent believe the recent Starr Report on the president's conduct provided unnecessary sexually explicit material.

Clinton continues to receive positive job performance ratings from Rhode Island voters. Sixty-seven percent give him excellent or good ratings, 17 percent say his performance has been only fair, 13 percent rate him poor, and 3 percent offered no opinion. In May, 64 percent rated him excellent or good in his handling of his job.

In other results, Almond has the highest job performance rating of his term. Fifty-eight percent give him excellent or good ratings, 27 percent rate him only fair, 10 percent rate him poor, and 5 percent have no opinion. In an earlier survey, 54 percent felt his performance had been excellent or good, 30 percent believed it has been only fair, 12 percent rated him poor, and 4 percent had no opinion.

Jackvony's numbers are up as well. Thirty-six percent feel he is doing an excellent or good job as lieutenant governor (up from 33 percent in May), 20 percent rate him only fair, 4 percent give him poor marks, and 40 percent are undecided.

Fifty-eight percent believe Jeff Pine is doing an excellent or good job as attorney general, down from 69 percent in May. Fifty-eight percent feel Jim Langevin's performance as secretary of state has been excellent or good, down from 62 in the last survey. Sixty-two percent believe Mayer's performance as treasurer has been excellent or good, down from 78 percent as in in January.

With regard to federal officials, 63 percent believe Sen. John Chafee is doing an excellent or good job (down from 69 percent). These numbers compare to 64 percent for Sen. Jack Reed (down from 70 percent), 60 percent for Kennedy (up from 58 percent), and 55 percent for Weygand (down from 62 percent last May).

The "right direction" number is at its high point in this decade. Seventy-two percent believe the state is headed in the right direction (up from 70 percent in May), while 17 percent think it is off on the wrong track.

The Index of Consumer Sentiment for Rhode Island this month also has reached a high point for this decade. The September reading is 104.7, up from the last readings of 102.9 for May and 100.1 in January. This index is modeled after the national index developed at the University of Michigan. It is based on five questions measuring views about the economy and is used to determine over time how optimistic or pessimistic people are feeling in relation to the base period of 1966, when the index stood at 100. The September 1998 figure is the highest reading the state has had since 1992:

For more information, contact Darrell M. West at (401) 863-1163.

Survey Questions and Responses

If the election for the first congressional district were held today, would you vote for the Republican Ron Santa, Democrat Patrick Kennedy, Reform Party candidate James Sheehan, or Legalized Freedom Party candidate Charles Picerno? 11% Santa, 64% Kennedy, 3% Sheehan, 3% Picerno 19% don't know or no answer (first district only)

If the election for the second congressional district were held today, would you vote for Republican John Matson, Democrat Robert Weygand, or the Reform Party candidate Tim Miller? 11% Matson, 61% Weygand, 2% Miller, 26% don't know or no answer (second district only)

If the election for governor were held today, would you vote for the Republican Lincoln Almond, Democrat Myrth York, Cool Moose Party candidate Robert Healey, or Reform Party candidate John Devine? 41% Almond, 35% York, 9% Healey, 2% Devine, 13% don't know or no answer

If the election for lieutenant governor were held today, would you vote for the Republican Bernard Jackvony, Democrat Charles Fogarty, Green Party candidate Jeff Johnson, or Reform Party candidate John Carlevale? 26% Jackvony, 34% Fogarty, 4% Johnson, 2% Carlevale, 34% don't know or no answer

If the election for attorney-general were held today, would you vote for the Republican Nancy Mayer or Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse? 40% Mayer, 46% Whitehouse, 14% don't know or no answer

If the election for secretary of state were held today, would you vote for Republican Edward Lopez or Democrat James Langevin? 13% Lopez, 59% Langevin, 28% don't know or no answer

If the election for treasurer were held today, would you vote for the Republican Jim Bennett, Democrat Paul Tavares, or Reform Party candidate Victor Moffitt? 18% Bennett, 35% Tavares, 7% Moffitt, 40% don't know or no answer

We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are: 56% better off, 16% worse off financially than you were a year ago, 28% don't know or no answer

Now looking ahead - do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be: 36% better off financially, 6% worse off, 47% just about the same as now, 11% don't know or no answer

Now turning to business conditions in the state as a whole - do you think that during the next twelve months we'll have: 53% good times financially, 18% bad times, 29% don't know or no answer

Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely - that in the state as a whole: 50% we'll have continuous good times during the next five years or so, 24% that we will have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what, 26% don't know or no answer

About the big things people buy for their homes - such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a: 72% good, 9% bad time for people to buy major household items, 19% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Bill Clinton is doing as president? 22% excellent, 45% good, 17% only fair, 13% poor, 3% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job John Chafee is doing as U.S. Senator? 14% excellent, 49% good, 22% only fair, 5% poor, 10% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jack Reed is doing as U.S. Senator? 16% excellent, 48% good, 19% only fair, 4% poor, 13% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Patrick Kennedy is doing as U.S. Representative? 14% excellent, 46% good, 19% only fair, 9% poor, 12% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Robert Weygand is doing as U.S. Representative? 9% excellent, 46% good, 17% only fair, 4% poor, 24% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Lincoln Almond is doing as governor? 15% excellent, 43% good, 27% only fair, 10% poor, 5% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Bernard Jackvony is doing as lieutenant governor? 4% excellent, 32% good, 20% only fair, 4% poor, 40% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jeff Pine is doing as attorney general? 14% excellent, 44% good, 23% only fair, 11% poor, 8% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Jim Langevin is doing as secretary of state? 16% excellent, 42% good, 13% only fair, 2% poor, 27% don't know or no answer

How would you rate the job Nancy Mayer is doing as general treasurer? 17% excellent, 45% good, 20% only fair, 5% poor, 13% don't know or no answer

Generally speaking, would you say things in Rhode Island are going in the right direction, or have they gotten off on the wrong track? 72% right direction, 17% wrong track, 11% don't know or no answer

President Clinton has been accused of personal misconduct in regard to an affair with Monica Lewinsky. Do you believe that he:

a) misled the general public about this affair? 69% yes, 15% no, 16% don't know or no answer

b) lied to the grand jury? 62% yes, 15% no, 23% don't know or no answer

c) committed perjury in his testimony? 53% yes, 22% no, 25% don't know or no answer

d) engaged in conduct unbecoming of a president? 69% yes, 21% no, 10% don't know or no answer

Based on his behavior, do you think President Clinton should:

a) resign from office? 31% yes, 60% no, 9% don't know or no answer

b) be impeached? 17% yes, 75% no, 8% don't know or no answer

c) be censured or reprimanded by Congress? 63% yes, 26% no, 11% don't know or no answer

If President Clinton comes to Rhode Island this Fall to campaign for state Democratic candidates, would he be: 38% an asset, 38% a liability, 24% don't know or no answer

Do you believe that Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr used unfair tactics in his search for information about the President? 65% yes, 23% no, 12% don't know or no answer

Do you feel the Starr Report provided unnecessary sexually explicit material? 76% yes, 16% no, 8% don't know or no answer