Designing analytic tool to interface with electronic data capture for Individual participant clinical trials
N-of-1 trials are single-participant, multiple-crossover studies for determining the relative comparative effectiveness of two or more treatments for one individual. The individual selects treatments and outcomes of interest, carries out the trial, and then makes a final treatment decision together based on results of the trial. In the PREEMPT study which compares patients randomized to N-of-1 vs. usual care, we are developing an automated Bayesian calculator that computes the probability that a patient benefits under each treatment for a series of outcomes. These probabilities are informed by data from other patients using shrinkage estimators. This calculator is connected to the output of a mobile health application on a smartphone on which patients can enter their own data. To enhance the analytic tool and to enable it to process large amounts of information, the next step is to implement a set of more realistic models that captures the dynamic nature of the data.