Rowan Iskandar, PhD will present at a Health Policy Seminar at the Center for the Evaluation of Value & Rick in Health (CEVR) at Tufts Medical Center (35 Kneeland Street, 7th Floor, Boston, MA 02111) on December 4, 2018 from 12:00pm - 1:00pm.

Title: "A theoretical foundation for state-transition cohort model in health decision analyses"

Abstract:

Markov cohort models are commonly used in decision analysis to model the effect of different policies and interventions on population health, but these models are implicitly based on the probability distributions of a single individual transitioning through different health states. I derive theoretical model that explicitly extends the commonly-used Markov model framework to a discrete population with many individuals, including the derivation of a density function and the moments this stochastic process, and show that cohort model represents the average of the derived stochastic process.