PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] — Current climate models predict that global warming will cease once the world achieves “net-zero,” a phenomenon expected to occur when the amount of carbon dioxide that human activities emit into the atmosphere equals the amount of CO2 that is removed from the atmosphere.
Not so fast, assert the authors of a recent paper published in Frontiers in Science that challenges those modeling estimates. Co-authored by 21 climate experts, including Brown University Professor of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences Baylor Fox-Kemper, the study offers an analysis of the diverse factors controlling global temperatures and provides a framework for improving warming predictions.
Fox-Kemper said the paper is a pathbreaking review of the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC), which quantifies how global much warming or cooling can be expected following a complete cessation of human-caused CO2 emissions. While climate models have become increasingly accurate under strong emissions scenarios, there is less certainty about how the commitment will impact future scenarios, he said.
"I hope this article highlights the important research gaps in our current understanding of ZEC, and I’m especially hopeful that it will motivate key climate scientists to continue to improve and refine climate models," said Fox-Kemper, who is a fellow with the Institute at Brown for Environment and Society. "Now that climate change is really underway, we need these models to be far more accurate, refined and reliable."
